Probability of Detection (P.O.D.) - Page 4 - German Shepherd Dog Forums
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post #31 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-22-2009, 09:08 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Strange first post indeed. However, the equation does appear to be based on search theory for land SAR. I googled for "Probability of Detection (POD) = 1 – e-Coverage" and this first result describes it in detail:

Overview of Search Theory

Welcome to the forum devildog. Are you involved in SAR in WA?

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post #32 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-23-2009, 11:35 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

This formula came from K-9 Area Search Tactics and Coverage
Estimation
Tony Copes but you need to see the rest of the class and even then it's hard to understand
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post #33 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-23-2009, 11:39 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Yes two years now but am about to change to a new dog a GSD first one I ever owned . My Lab never quite made it to a level he could test and pass , to easly distracted.
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post #34 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-24-2009, 03:31 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Quote:
Originally Posted By: devildogThis formula came from K-9 Area Search Tactics and Coverage Estimation
Tony Copes but you need to see the rest of the class and even then it's hard to understand
I've been to Tony's classes and I learned a lot from them about how to effectively search an area with a dog. I can't say that I use the formulas though--there are just too many variables that affect coverage such as terrain, weather, experience, physical condition of handler and dog, etc.

Tony will be teaching classes again at the WASAR 2009 conference.

Jonathan & Benny

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post #35 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-24-2009, 09:33 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Interesting article - you know though I have not seen anything to suggestion a linear relationship between POD and critical spacing but have done trainings where CS of 1 using the northumberland rain dance really did produce a 50% POD.

But yes, Hatch-Graham also had [previously referenced] in this post POD calculations for a dog air scent team - similar too simplistic.

I think the concept of using a POD estimate by an experienced searcher is of value to search planning in a search with multiple ops period but so much relies on experience of searchers and ICs.

Nancy



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post #36 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-25-2009, 01:03 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

I had hoped to go to the conference but I may not as I am getting a new dog ( 10 weeks old )and I will want to spend a lot of time bonding with her. She will be about 16 weeks at the time wasar 2009 and I'm not sure taking her and tring to go to classes would work.

I'm from the Spokane area and we hosted dog meet 2008 and I was wondering if you went to that, also what area you were from?
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post #37 of 37 (permalink) Old 02-25-2009, 10:38 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Quote:
Originally Posted By: devildogI'm from the Spokane area and we hosted dog meet 2008 and I was wondering if you went to that, also what area you were from?
Yep I was there and I have proof Answering the call

I am in King County, on the rainy side of the state. To get this back on topic I'll say that I have not tried the "How Long is Your Shadow" method because it is very rare to be able see your shadow here. That doesn't mean the air is usually stable though. The wind often changes directions or swirls around, making it difficult to apply a simple table to estimate POD. Maybe in other parts of the country that approach might be more applicable.

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