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post #11 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-07-2009, 12:44 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Because of the incredible forest canopy and abundant wildlife, FLIR is not as useful Also, I undestand there is a lot of restricted airspace in the smokies that requires considerable political action to access. The helicopters are great for open areas and a good spotter is great for spotting bodies in ponds.

What they do is based on years of mountain experience and terrain features do impact the movement of people.

No people are often where you don't expect but you still have to build a search area which still radiates around the LKP** [PLS can sometimes be unreliable]. and I know we try to get direct access to the family to beef up the interview becuase you often don't get the "whole story" until they start getting more frantic.

** we helped on a search where someone showed up because another team was working around the "PLS" and a team member asked "has anybody worked around the house-we know she was there?" she put out a trailing dog and found the person alive within about 30 minutes.

Nancy



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post #12 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-07-2009, 10:45 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

I like being asked to evaluate my own POD. I also ask handlers in training areas to evaluate the situation and come up with their own POD.

Yes the IC's use their experience, mathematical equations and sometimes some use a magic wand over a map. (sorry but some IC's can really come up with some wacky scenario's and will have you searching swamp quagmire for a 92yo with one leg) Yes I know they COULD hop into the swamp but far better to follow the wheelchair tracks down the dirt road. I am being overly dramatic but I have been given some really crazy assignments. Usually by the IC's who have all the book learning in the world but no field officer training.

But I digress, by evaluating my own POD I have more of a tendancy to look and the situation from the point of view of the subject. By adding experience and knowledge of the area to be searched and training of lost person behaviour I believe you can far more thoroughly think out your scenario and set up your search of the area assigned. Yes I will put much effort into an area with low POD as crazy things can happen ( I mean we once found a wheelchair bound man behind a 6 ft privacy fence with no access from where he left his wheelchair) but I like using my brain in a search and not just completing my assignment like a robot. After all isn't that our part in the k9 and human partnership?

I have to disagree with the body usually being found within a short distance of where they went down. At least in the Gulf of Mexico this is not the case. In the case of the 4 Angels thrown from the bridge the last child was located 60 mile from the other children of the coast of LA. Current patterns down here are needed and also the input of local fishermen who have fished these areas for generations and know far more about these waters than anyone. I agree in lakes ect but not necessarily so in rivers and open water.

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post #13 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-07-2009, 11:13 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Sharon, I think you are using the term POD in some cases where it is POA. In the 2nd paragraph, You would put as much effort in an area with a low "POA"[probability that the subject is in the area] as crazy things can happen. The extra effort would result in a higher POD which would result in a higher POS as POS=POAxPOD. All areas should be searched as though the subject is there.

Agree about some of the scenarios. The book knowledge is necessary but there is no substitute for experience. -- I wonder about searches for bodies in swamps populated by pigs and gators where the body went missing over 10 years ago -- has anyone been succesful in such a search?

With the water - we have seen two in rivers where we believe the body was moving in channels when it was starting to float but still submerged. I know until they float they stay put, but they don't necessarily pop up all at once. There was one where we had three alerts by three dogs each one downstream from the other, each one marked by handlers a few hours apart with the new handler not knowing what the prior teams had done [they were not even on site yet]- divers were not put in as (1) a body was not found at the first alert where a diver was put in and (2) it was getting dark and (3) this was a river with dam releases and it was a bit dicey ----the body came up the next morning downstream of all the alert but in the same channel as the alerts.

Nancy



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post #14 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 08:37 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Sorry if I am using incorrect initials, never really understood the that the two were really all that different. If you have a higher probability that the subject is in the area, do you not have a higher probability of detection? Not being argumentative, really have never understood that fine line but then NASAR uses so many abbreviations I wonder that anyone can keep them straight. We actually never use POA instead of POD so thats my final excuse for interchanging the two.

As for the body staying put until it floats that is not the case in the gulf where there are swift undercurrents only a few inches above the ocean floor, especially at different times of the year. Since around here the ocean floor is extremely flat a body can be swept quite a distance from where they go in before they ever float. Our inland water ways can be a challenge also as the tidal flows are extremely strong and can move a body significantly. Yes I have seen bodies that are found fairly close to where they went in but I have seen others where you scratch your head and think "How the heck did they end up that far away?" Then there are those that never show. We had a search about 2 years ago that involved 2 people off a boat, the husband was located fairly close to the boat, the wife we searched for a long time but she was never found. Of course with the shark population around here that does not overly surprise me but there was nothing of her that was ever found, and the search was extensive. Yes the gulf around here can be a fickle beast, always doing the unexpected and sometimes refusing to give up its lost.

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Lexi CGC (Cert. area search)
Neko CGC (Cert. HRD)
Justice CGC (trailing),
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post #15 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 09:24 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

have to disagree with the body usually being found within a short distance of where they went down. At least in the Gulf of Mexico this is not the case [quote]

I am not talking Gulf of Mexico. I live on it. You have tides there. but yes, statistically I have found the 100yd rule to hold true. There are circumstances that can break that,but in general, the body does not move that much. I work rivers too. I talk with handlers all over the US. The main point is that when possible, one always starts the search where the victim reportedly was last seen and work out from there.
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post #16 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 09:26 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

As for the body staying put until it floats that is not the case in the gulf where there are swift undercurrents only a few inches above the ocean floor, especially at different times of the year. Since around here the ocean floor is extremely flat a body can be swept quite a distance from where they go in before they ever float. Our inland water ways can be a challenge also as the tidal flows are extremely strong and can move a body significantly. Yes


******************************************

Again, we do not work dogs in the ocean. I am not talking about that. That is USCG problem.
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post #17 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 09:50 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Quote:
Originally Posted By: k9sarnekoSorry if I am using incorrect initials, never really understood the that the two were really all that different. If you have a higher probability that the subject is in the area, do you not have a higher probability of detection?
No, the POD is the probability of finding the subject <span style="color: #FF0000">ASSUMING</span> they are in the sector. I am not sure it is specifically a NASAR thing. The link in sarinfobc does a pretty good job of explaining it.

You don't use POA instead of POD, it is used with POD to come up with POS. I have only gotten into it keeping up with maps at IC. So when you estimate your POD you have to ask your self - what is the probability I would find this person if they were in this area?

Nancy



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post #18 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 10:46 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)



Quote:
Quote: what is the probability I would find this person if they were in this area?
Again no harm in this but,but. Anyone that puts too much stock in this is going to miss someone. The first thing we learn in looking for crooks or looking for anyone is that they do not read books nor take stats into consideration. I have spent 30 years looking for folks and the one thing that I promise you is that they do not necessarily do what we think they will. That is the only point that I have been trying to make.
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post #19 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 11:24 AM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

No argument there. We have seen some of those - amazing where feeble old altzheimers people wind up.

Nancy



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post #20 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-08-2009, 08:06 PM
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Re: Probability of Detection (P.O.D.)

Renee I absolutely am not disagreeing with you in the fact that you always start your search out at point last seen and work out from there.
My only point was that in our area this is not always the case. And down here we do work in the Gulf and inlets, tributaries ect often along side or for the Coast guard and the rule that they usually do not always move significantly does not always apply. Other bodies of water I would never assume to know about and would definately defer to your experience.

Nancy I understand what you are saying but think I was not being clear in what I was trying to say. Yes if you have a 10 mile radius containment area and the subject was at point last seen 1.5 hours ago you are safe to assume (although I am not saying always) that if ambulating they are somewhere within the area. However if you are given an area to clear within that 10 mile radius then you must evaluate the terrain, weather situation, direction of travel (if known) mentality of the lost person ect to come up with a probability of detection. Yes each area should be searched carefully and professionally but areas with a higher probability of detection should be searched 1st and with the most experienced teams. By discussing with each handler at debriefing what their idea of POD was and why I have found that I have learned much from other handlers who either agree or disagree with my POD and why. Since (like on this site) you never find 2 or 3 handlers who agree on everything (or sometimes anything) I find for myself that listening to opposing points of view to be very educational.

Maybe I am finding myself lost in the phrasing and losing my point I was trying to say. I spend very little time with the IC and most in the field so maybe should just keep quiet.

Sharon, Mom to
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Lexi CGC (Cert. area search)
Neko CGC (Cert. HRD)
Justice CGC (trailing),
BOLO, Bloodhound CGC(trailing)
Titan, Shilo Shepherd (beginning area search)
Kibby(Rodie mix)
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