Predictions… what will the GSD be like 100 years from today? - German Shepherd Dog Forums
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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-04-2013, 11:21 PM Thread Starter
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Predictions… what will the GSD be like 100 years from today?

What do you think the future holds for GSDs (health, temperament, popularity, lines, etc.)?
  • Will there be more lines or fewer lines?
  • Will the genetic health issues be resolved or will they be worse?
  • Will there be more balance or less balance within the breed as a whole?
  • How will breeding decisions be the same - or different - based on advances in understanding of canine genetics at the population and individual level?
  • How will purchase, or adoption, decision-making information be the same or different?
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 12:08 AM
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I predict ALL breeds will run in to problems maintaining this artificial "pure" bred system -- need diversity .
The concept of purebred is about 100 years old as we speak . Van Oirschot lectures STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES



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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 03:45 PM
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I recently watched a documentary called 'pedigree of dogs exposed' and man I was frustrated and sad. You should watch it, its on youtube... If the same thing continues then I guess there won't be 'dogs' anymore .

- Sunny, PB W GSD DOB: 04/19/13
- Buddy Labrador Retriever 06/15/2005 - 01/02/2013
- Veeru, breed unknown 01/01/90 - 03/01/04
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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 04:04 PM
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Barring some unforseen worldwide disaster such as war or plague. I predict that bite sports will be banned in most of the EU and potentially some states in the USA and Canada.
As such, people interested in seriously testing and competing with their dogs will be driven underground. This will lead to a further divide between GSDs capable of work and the rest, making it much harder to obtain quality dogs and share genetics.
There will also be less checks and ballances like hip scores, titles etc.

Germany will no longer produce real GSDs but will persist with SV show dogs who's workability and structure will continue to decline.
Perhaps Czeck will replace them or Holland as long as they arent afflicted with the PITA types and their ilk. Maybe even the USA..

I predict the Malinois and Dutch Shepherd will fully replace the GSD in all real working venues and bite sports where they arent banned.

In short the GSD will become the next Doberman, a glorified pet with mythical workability that is in reality non existent.

The Sv has already made noises about banning stick hits..its already starting.

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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 04:22 PM
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breed is an experiment that has run for just over 100 years. A good book to look at is Bred for Perfection



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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 07:25 PM
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i just hope in a hundred years a gsd stops by head stone, even if it is just to pee.
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 07:27 PM
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I see the rise in popularity of Czech/DDR/any working line shepherd being a really bad thing. The novelty of having a 'hardcore' dog, who's parents 'were police dogs' (yeah right) will just be too much for many people to pass up. I mean everyone likes the idea of a big mean dog who'll protect its family right? Backyard bitework training will be on the rise, and the unstable/improperly trained dogs will cause problems in public (think - nervy fear aggressive dogs, with inexperienced handlers, taught to bite other people. What could go wrong...) Legitimate training avenues (Schutzhund, French ring, PSA etc.) will be blamed and eventually the ignorant public people will boycott their existence.

"Why would you teach a family dog to attack!"
"There's no need for such training to be done outside of police work"

GSDs (and Working line dogs especially) already have a bad reputation, and now that everyone and their mother wants a 'dark sable DDR' who will protect their family in these uncertain times, BYBs will have a field day selling exactly what the uninformed want.

Of course this is entirely speculation, and I seriously hope that I am completely wrong. Good breeders care about who their puppy's live their lives with, but it's the BYBs that I worry about, as well as the impulsive puppy buyers who don't do their homework and want one NOW.

I haven't mentioned SLs because they are so yesterday. Today is the day of WL shepherds - 'real GSDs' as I've seen them called on here by a few. And I'm sure that's exactly what the BYBs will say when they advertise them.

EDIT: Just realised how ambiguous my first line is. The fact that DDR, Czech and other working lines are being maintained is excellent, and I hope this continues. My concern is what happens when in-discriminant breeding practices of these (along with other) lines by crappy breeders leaks out to reach joe public, and all those people who think they know how to train a protection dog with absolutely zero experience. SLs won't cut the mustard because they 'don't have the drive', hence why I think WLs heading towards being in vogue

Last edited by Vagus; 12-05-2013 at 07:37 PM.
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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 07:41 PM
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Just to add, in case my post seems entirely off the mark (which hopefully it is!):

Five years ago, no one could tell you what a Belgian Malinois was - I think this was a good thing. Now everyone wants the dog that took down the world's most infamous terrorist
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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 07:52 PM
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I have a both positive views and cynical views.

My positive view is that things have to get better, because they've already hit rock bottom. There are "modern" GSDs that Stephanitz is probably rolling in his grave over. The extremes in both show and sport lines do not reflect the "golden middle" that was sought. The dog that was supposed to be best at nothing, but second best at everything, has become so specialized in the different bloodlines that the breed no longer has the versatility that was desired. So, the pendulum must swing back as people begin to realize that the "real" GSD is becoming more and more rare.

I feel the positive because I have actually seen things change for the better in the past 20 years or so, so it makes me hopeful.

On the cynical side, I think that perhaps technology will be developed that can "sniff" better than a dog can, apprehend a criminal better than a dog can, alert/guard better than a dog can, and help disabled folks better than a dog can. Therefore, the need for true working K9s may be greatly diminished. Police and military, SAR, and other service could find new machines to do the work that dogs used to do. Thus, what is the need to breed the utilitarian traits that we so value in this breed?

If that is the case, then GSDs will have to either change, or die out. 100 years in the future, it may be considered "cruel" and "unnecessary" to make dogs do strenuous or life-threatening work for humans. The only "job" a dog may have is to be a companion and member of the family. As such, aggression would probably be discouraged and you'll see a more placid, retriever-like temperament being promoted.

In which case, hopefully, dogs with confidence, strong nerves and high thresholds will be selected for breeding, and not the shy, reactive, fearful GSDs that we see so many of today. I would rather see a strong-nerved, stable, confident, non-aggressive GSD as a "pet" dog, than a soft and sensitive dog that is easily pushed into avoidance as a means of discouraging aggression. Both types could be okay in pet homes, but I want the GSD to at least be the strong and stalwart type, it if comes down to that.
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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 12-05-2013, 08:25 PM
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I like to keep it positive. The GSD will be a massive half cyborg half dogbeast made of some sort of stronger than titanium light weight polymer. It will eat Uranium nuggets for fuel and crap depleted uranium the military will want you to collect for use in making anti tank shells for use against the Chinese Empire.
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