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Thread: Computer based statistical analysis of bloodlines Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
01-15-2013 05:05 PM
hunterisgreat
Quote:
Originally Posted by jae View Post
Stats, real results are necessary to compare to the predictions. I think you would totally be able to create something to draw up a range of possibilities. The issue you will need real data to go off of, if you can get real results into your studies then it certainly will be feasible.
I am sure there are sciences devoted to gene patterns and predictions for more than a few things. Cannot imagine this being much different.
Anything very distinctly genetic - like say DM, or coat color... you could say very accurate things with limited data. For more difficult to pinpoint or tie to one or a few genes and may have some influence from both nature and nurture, such as HD, temperament, drive levels, would need more data... but if you had a perfect dataset to train the system on, you could say profoundly accurate things about future offspring
01-15-2013 04:34 PM
jae Stats, real results are necessary to compare to the predictions. I think you would totally be able to create something to draw up a range of possibilities. The issue you will need real data to go off of, if you can get real results into your studies then it certainly will be feasible.
I am sure there are sciences devoted to gene patterns and predictions for more than a few things. Cannot imagine this being much different.
01-15-2013 04:10 PM
hunterisgreat
Quote:
Originally Posted by jocoyn View Post
What percentage of dogs do you think would have to have that data generated in order to be a viable tool? I believe it is very very low.
The short answer is, the more the data, the better the results.
01-15-2013 03:36 PM
Liesje There is a "breed betterment registry" or whatever it's called but so few people use it.
01-15-2013 03:30 PM
jocoyn What percentage of dogs do you think would have to have that data generated in order to be a viable tool? I believe it is very very low.
01-15-2013 03:19 PM
hunterisgreat
Quote:
Originally Posted by wildo View Post
Haven spoken to Lee (wolfstraum) on the phone about a pedigree in the past, my thought is that the data she knew and used to decipher the pedigree is simply not available via queryable data sources. What data DOES live out there (like hip scores and some titles) may be helpful in generating an entry point for analysis, but almost certainly not to the level that one would be able to setup expectations on potential breedings. It appears to me that such info comes from years of first (or perhaps second) hand experience, and is stored in brains only, not silicon.

[EDIT]- I would say that some dogs have been discussed at length via forums like these and PDB. But in such cases, the data is not easily queried since it is in paragraph/sentence form. Sure- it lives in a DB somewhere, but the software would have to be amazingly good at contextual recognition. Not likely unless you can finance Watson.
Right, I wouldn't have access to someone's personal experiences and opinions on given dogs... but should dogs be accurately assessed via some sort of score sheet, such data could be used
01-15-2013 03:17 PM
hunterisgreat
Quote:
Originally Posted by stealthq View Post
You can't come up with a remotely accurate confidence level using just the skewed data without some kind of reasonable estimate for the distribution of values for the overall population. Otherwise, your residuals will be so high that you might as well not bother.

Perhaps there are more generic statistics reported by veterinary schools, etc, that you can find? That would give you a place to start for some health-related values.
You could make more accurate predictions than a human could, with the same data (this is demonstrated to be true in *many* applications).
01-15-2013 02:28 PM
wildo Haven spoken to Lee (wolfstraum) on the phone about a pedigree in the past, my thought is that the data she knew and used to decipher the pedigree is simply not available via queryable data sources. What data DOES live out there (like hip scores and some titles) may be helpful in generating an entry point for analysis, but almost certainly not to the level that one would be able to setup expectations on potential breedings. It appears to me that such info comes from years of first (or perhaps second) hand experience, and is stored in brains only, not silicon.

[EDIT]- I would say that some dogs have been discussed at length via forums like these and PDB. But in such cases, the data is not easily queried since it is in paragraph/sentence form. Sure- it lives in a DB somewhere, but the software would have to be amazingly good at contextual recognition. Not likely unless you can finance Watson.
01-15-2013 02:21 PM
stealthq You can't come up with a remotely accurate confidence level using just the skewed data without some kind of reasonable estimate for the distribution of values for the overall population. Otherwise, your residuals will be so high that you might as well not bother.

Perhaps there are more generic statistics reported by veterinary schools, etc, that you can find? That would give you a place to start for some health-related values.
01-15-2013 01:18 PM
hunterisgreat
Quote:
Originally Posted by jocoyn View Post
One of the problems is.........a valid sampling of offspring is not performed (at least over here) and bad results are often not posted.

Isn't that what the ZW is supposed to do over in Germany for hips but there a greater percentage of dogs are submittted for screening (or are they)?
True, however with the various tools out there in the computer world, you can quantify, for example, bad hips, good hips, excellent hips, and "no data"... which is to say, a statistical analysis for an excellent hip dog bred to a "no data" dog would be something along the lines of "excellent hips, 33% confidence"... a level of confidence to a given answer is part of the computational approach.

In other words, if out of the breeding of 2 dogs, where i know half the hips scores, whatever they may be, I can still draw meaningful conclusions that carry less confidence than if I knew every dog's hips
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