Imagine the German Shepherd in 20 to 30 years... what do you think you'll see?
 

There are a lot of breeders with a lot of unique standards in terms of what the German Shepherd dog should be.

Just for fun, imagine the German Shepherd dog 20-30 years from today. What do you think will be different? What do you think will be popular? Do you expect any big changes based on how the most reputable breeders are producing right now? Do you expect improvement, a decline in quality, or no significant change at all?

What do you think the GSD will be like in 20-30 years?

I see Zeeva c:

I honestly hope to see more moderation in drive and structure.

I love the breed and the extremes I'm seeing in some of the "top" dogs are worrisome. But with good breeders continuing to strive to improve I know there will always be good ones out there, that's a comfort :)

I honestly think that the way the BYB's are dominating the breed that the good breeders and dogs are not being show cased properly.

I think more awareness needs to be out in the public eye before we start seeing a change in our breed (or any breed that has become "popularized").

It's one of those "hit rock bottom before you pick yourself up" type of situations that I think we are heading towards.

There are some EXCELLENT breeders breeding EXCELLENT dogs, but unfortunately for "Joe Schmoe" that is not what is readily available for them (not talking about us dog people who research pedigrees, breeders, dogs, etc.). But, I also know that there are more BYB's breeding these dogs than those excellent breeders, and the general public doesn't see a lot of well bred German Shepherds who are correct to the standard (in structure, working ability and most importantly temperament and health).

I always make it a point to mention to people who want to talk to me about my dogs or just dogs in general about finding a responsible breeder breeding for the standard of the breed. Or mention temperament traits that people think of as "rare" that are really standard for the breed.

So, only time will tell what the breed becomes.. I know that I will not be a part of it's decline though. I will only support those breeding for the German Shepherd dog. ;)

The reason I made this thread was because I worry that the German Shepherd will become the crazy, high drive sport dog pushing for points points points and less able to cap drives, preform real world work, HERD, and do service work that requires a calm, stable temperament and clear headed workability.

I think black sables will be the most popular.

Honestly, I think we've already hit rock bottom. I have actually seen some improvement since the 80s and 90s. In the American show lines there has already been a movement away from the most extreme conformation. I expect to see the same in the other lines... movement away from the extremes and more toward the "golden middle".

Actually, I think it's that way now; the extremes have been rewarded for some time, but you can only get *so* extreme--the only place to go from there is moderation and balance. I think that through extremes, you discover where the golden middle actually is, and I think that after such extremes, more and more breeders are going to find the value in moderation and balance.

For good or ill, I think there will be more mixing of show and work bloodlines. It will take a long while to get this right, maybe more than 20-25 years, but I foresee more breeders willing to bring working lines into the show lines, and more working line breeders willing to breed with show lines.

I may be overly idealistic here, but I honestly think the GSD has already hit rock bottom and can only go up from here. There are a lot of good breeders out there and ideas are always changing and evolving; I have been around long enough to have seen changes in other breeds, some for better and some for worse, but I know things can improve if enough breeders are dedicated to the task.

Very interesting!
I think as humans in general, we tend to aim for extremes (not just with dogs) In 30 years German shepherds will all have big blocky heads like mastiffs and it will be normal/routine for them to need C sections inorder to give birth. The breed standard will be 30lbs heavier then it is now or 20lbs lighter so we will all either have king shepherds or coyote looking dogs and every dog will be black sable or bi color.....kidding!
It feels like we have already gone to extremes with this amazing breed so hopefully we will have learned something from these experiments and we will be back to breeding german shepherds the way they are supposed to be and the way they were when the breed first originated.

I think you'll see the same thing we see now, breeders producing dogs that match their ideas of what the breed should be.
The biggest change IMHO will be more people doing things with their dogs whether its sports, tracking, herding etc. Thanks to the internet I think more people are learning how much fun you can have with a dog when you get involved with classes and competitive sports.

I am said to be an idealist too but I agree and hope you are right!

I hope there will be more focus on the GSD as an all arouind family dog, away from the extreme drives and have a serious talk with the AKC judges regarding the extreme conformation that win currently. If not the show GSDs will start to look more like hares.