I definitely understand that this is not a $2000/pup litter coming from a distinguished Police K9/training outfit.
... Do you at all believe that this pedigree can produce a pup in line to learn with me at my low level of experience (training knowledge not yet qualifying as experience)? Maybe, possibly, being able to reach lower levels of protection?
Not a pedigree expert here, but if you are serious about the work, there is really no such thing as "lower levels" of protection. Either the dog will protect you or it won't. If all you want is a barking dog to deter people, then yes, you could probably pick up any dog from a shelter to do that. But if you want to have any success in the work, you want a pup from a pedigree with PROVEN working ability, and you'll need to select your pup wisely.
Haus Gill looks to run my budget into the mid $2k's and this litter I'm into now is a little less than half that.
IMO, it's a mistake to make price an issue. Pick a breeder whose program is proven, and ask them if they think one of their pups would meet your needs. If so, then price should be no object (within reason). This is an animal you will spend 10-15 years with, and as long as you're spending money, you might as well get what you want... if you spend $500 and the dog turns out to be a failure in everything you want to do with it, you won't be happy and neither will the dog. If you spend $2500 and the dog turns out to be everything you had hoped, will you miss the extra money you spent?
I know it's a lot of money, believe me--if I want a dog, I have to scrimp and save for it. But it costs just as much to feed and care for a $2500 pup as it does for a $500 pup. You want the RIGHT pup. Not saying you won't find a good one for less money, just saying that more hinges on the breeder, their dogs, and their goals than it does on how much money you spend.
Of course, there is always the chance that you will spend a lot of money and the pup doesn't turn out to be a good fit. But if you've selected your breeder carefully, they should give you help and support, and in the end, will be willing to take the dog back and place it in a more appropriate home.
As a beginner, you want to tip the odds for success in your favor as much as possible. You and the dog will be learning together, but if the dog has what it takes, the learning will be fun and rewarding. If the pup is not into what you want to do, you will still learn a lot, but the learning may encompass more frustration and heartache than fun.